# Forkable Strings are Rare

In a blockchain protocol such as Bitcoin, the users see the world as a sequence of states. A simple yet functional view of this world, for the purpose of analysis, is a Boolean string $w = w_1, w_2, \cdots$ of zeros and ones, where each bit is independently biased towards $1$ favoring the “bad guys.”

A bad guy is activated when $w_t = 1$ for some $t$. He may try to present the good guys with a conflicting view of the world, such as presenting multiple candidate blockchains of equal length. This view is called a “fork”. A string $w$ that allows the bad guy to fork (with nonnegligible probability) is called a “forkable string”. Naturally, we would like to show that forkable strings are rare: that the manipulative power of the bad guys over the good guys is negligible.

Claim ([1], Bound 2). Suppose $w =w_1, \cdots, w_n$ is a Boolean string, with every bit independently set to $1$ with probability $(1-\epsilon)/2$ for some $\epsilon < 1$. The probability that $w$ is forkable is at most $\exp(-\epsilon^3n/2)$.

In this post, we present a commentary on the proof that forkable strings are rare. I like the proof because it uses simple facts about random walks, generating functions, and stochastic domination to bound an apparently difficult random process.